Blog
They Accused Me of Fraud. It Made $20 Billion.
What happens when numbers stop making sense and the government needs a scapegoat?
The Clock is Screaming (And My Grandson is Listening)
I stepped out of the shower in March and my chest split open. Not a metaphor. The surgical incision from my cardiac device procedure just… opened. Blood and fluid everywhere. Three bath towels to stop it. My wife—a nurse, the exact person I needed—was in Chicago dealing with
What I'm Actually Thankful For (After My Body Failed Three Times This Year)
Five cardiac surgeries taught me the difference between Thanksgiving platitudes and what you're grateful for when the clock is screaming.
Second-Order Thinking: How to Stop Your Decisions From Creating Bigger Problems
In August 2025, Polish researchers tested something nobody had thought to check: what happens to doctors' skills after they rely on AI assistance? The AI worked perfectly—catching problems during colonoscopies, flagging abnormalities faster than human eyes could. But when researchers pulled the AI away, the doctors' detection
From Teligent Disaster to HP Success: A Second-Order Thinking Story
Kevin Allodi thought three moves ahead when I wasn't thinking past the first. His decision saved my family—and taught me the framework I use for billion-dollar calls.
I'm Thinking About Writing a Book. Here's Why—And I Need Your Help.
I'm turning two years of essays into a book on thinking independently. Read the concept and tell me what you think.
I Wore a Red Badge Inside the NSA. Here's What Happened.
I mastered probabilistic thinking in my algorithm. Then made every wrong bet with my business.
How To Make Better Decisions When Nothing Is Certain
You're frozen. The deadline's approaching. You don't have all the data. Everyone wants certainty. You can't give it. Sound familiar? Maybe it's a hiring decision with three qualified candidates and red flags on each one. Or a product launch where
The Six Words That Killed Quibi
Same Skill, Opposite Outcomes: How Jeffrey Katzenberg Built an Empire and Lost a Billion
You Think in Analogies Every Day (And You're Doing It Wrong)
Try to go through a day without using an analogy. I guarantee you'll fail within an hour. Your morning coffee tastes like yesterday's batch. Traffic is moving like molasses. Your boss sounds like a broken record. Every comparison you make—every single one—is your brain&
