predict the future
Hindsight Is 20/20 – The Hindsight Fallacy
The hindsight fallacy is a cognitive bias that relies heavily on past knowledge or experience when making predictions about the future. This belief that "hindsight is 20/20" can lead to inaccurate predictions because it causes people to forget that their past understanding might not be accurate.
Unexpected Way to Predict the Future
In past episodes, I’ve discussed science fiction stories as tools to predict the future. H.G Wells wrote about atomic bombs and the fallout - thirty years before Nagasaki and Hiroshima. In 1968, John Brunner predicted the European Union, China’s rise to power, and Detroit’s economic downfall.
Road Closed By Bad Planning
In 1973, the US was caught in the grip of a crisis – the oil embargo. Gas prices jumped +300% overnight. Economic and political turmoil was the norm. During this time, many firms, including the oil companies, were on the verge of failing. Yet during this time, one company – Royal Dutch/Shell – thriv
