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The Military Ignored His Brain Injury. So He Built What Could Have Saved His Brothers.

A Navy SEAL's fight against the invisible wounds killing America's elite warriors.

The Military Ignored His Brain Injury. So He Built What Could Have Saved His Brothers.

Numerical Thinking: How to Find the Truth When Numbers Lie

Quick—which is more dangerous: the thing that kills 50,000 Americans every year, or the thing that kills 50? Your brain says the first one, obviously. The data says you're dead wrong. Heart disease kills 700,000 people annually, but you're not terrified of cheeseburgers.

Numerical Thinking - How to Find the Truth When Numbers Lie

They Accused Me of Fraud. It Made $20 Billion.

What happens when numbers stop making sense and the government needs a scapegoat?

They Accused Me of Fraud. It Made $20 Billion.

The Clock is Screaming (And My Grandson is Listening)

I stepped out of the shower in March and my chest split open. Not a metaphor. The surgical incision from my cardiac device procedure just… opened. Blood and fluid everywhere. Three bath towels to stop it. My wife—a nurse, the exact person I needed—was in Chicago dealing with

The Clock is Screaming

What I'm Actually Thankful For (After My Body Failed Three Times This Year)

Five cardiac surgeries taught me the difference between Thanksgiving platitudes and what you're grateful for when the clock is screaming.

What I'm Actually Thankful For (After My Body Failed Three Times This Year)

Second-Order Thinking: How to Stop Your Decisions From Creating Bigger Problems

In August 2025, Polish researchers tested something nobody had thought to check: what happens to doctors' skills after they rely on AI assistance? The AI worked perfectly—catching problems during colonoscopies, flagging abnormalities faster than human eyes could. But when researchers pulled the AI away, the doctors' detection

Second Order Thinking

From Teligent Disaster to HP Success: A Second-Order Thinking Story

Kevin Allodi thought three moves ahead when I wasn't thinking past the first. His decision saved my family—and taught me the framework I use for billion-dollar calls.

From Teligent Disaster to HP Success: A Second-Order Thinking Story

I'm Thinking About Writing a Book. Here's Why—And I Need Your Help.

I'm turning two years of essays into a book on thinking independently. Read the concept and tell me what you think.

I'm Thinking About Writing a Book. Here's Why—And I Need Your Help.

I Wore a Red Badge Inside the NSA. Here's What Happened.

I mastered probabilistic thinking in my algorithm. Then made every wrong bet with my business.

I Wore a Red Badge Inside the NSA. Here's What Happened.

How To Make Better Decisions When Nothing Is Certain

You're frozen. The deadline's approaching. You don't have all the data. Everyone wants certainty. You can't give it. Sound familiar? Maybe it's a hiring decision with three qualified candidates and red flags on each one. Or a product launch where

Person practicing probabilistic thinking while analyzing uncertain decisions.