Ranking Ideas & Customer Segments
How to Tell a Good Decision From a Lucky One
An excellent decision and a lucky one leave the same evidence: a win. Tell them apart and you stop crediting luck as judgment. That's counterfactual thinking
How to Improve Your Weak Signal Judgment
Noticing a trend is easy and almost worthless. Predicting which one reshapes a market, and acting early, is where innovation pays.
How to Improve Your Second-Order Thinking Skills
The most expensive failures don't announce themselves. They start as weak signals somebody noticed once and explained away. Second-order thinking is how you stop being that somebody.
