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These essays on predictions share the process and outcome of making predictions, as well as the lessons I have learned along the way. Predictive models can help us better understand our world and plan for the future, but they are only as useful as their accuracy. The accuracy of a predictive model is determined by a variety of factors, such as information quality, the complexity of the world around us, the pace of innovation, and more.

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Future Faking Innovation

Future faking is a term that has crept into the lexicon that originated from a harmful dating practice. When applied to innovation, someone is predicting a future to get others excited about it, with no intention of making that future a reality.

Future Faking Innovation Image
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Continue Innovating During An Economic Downturn?

The current economic downturn may have you feeling like you need to hunker down and wait it out. Especially in innovating during an economic downturn. This is understandable—no one wants to risk their hard-earned money in uncertain times. But this is actually the optimal time to take innovation lead

innovating during an economic downturn
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Hindsight Is 20/20 – The Hindsight Fallacy

The hindsight fallacy is a cognitive bias that relies heavily on past knowledge or experience when making predictions about the future. This belief that "hindsight is 20/20" can lead to inaccurate predictions because it causes people to forget that their past understanding might not be accurate.

making better predictions
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(Preparing For) A Failure of Imagination

With organizational failures, the imagination is often at fault. We can’t imagine things going wrong, so we don’t plan for them. Organizations can’t imagine that their employees would do something unethical, so they don’t have policies in place to prevent it. Owners can’t imagine that a natural disa

dropping thru as a result of a failure of imagination
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Are You Playing The Innovation Long Game? An HP Story.

It’s a question that all businesses must ask themselves at some point: are we playing the innovation long game or have we settled for the quarterly short-term metric of innovation success? What does it take to stay engaged in an era when trend shifts happen with dizzying speed, and new technologies

Concept image of the innovation long game
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Hope or Cynicism: Which is the Right Outlook for the Future?

Hope or cynicism? This is a question that has been debated for centuries, and there is no simple answer. Some people believe that hope is the key to a bright future, while others feel that cynicism and pessimism are more realistic. Hope gives us the strength to face challenges head-on and to keep mo

Picture of bull and bear symbolizing the difference between optimism and pessimism
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Imagining a Better Future: Keys to Human Progress

Playing it safe will lead to the decay of human progress. The way to a great future is through innovation and creativity. This may sound like something from the dawn of time, but it has never been more true in today’s world. Innovation and creativity are at the heart of our economic recovery, our en

Image of lightbulbs showing Human Progress Through Innovation and Creativity
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Paying It Forward With Random Acts of Kindness

I began my tech career in a factory in Evansville, IN as the sole “geek” living in a condemned (yes—condemned) apartment building for $50.00 a month with my wife, who was finishing her nursing degree. How things have changed from that humble beginning. When I look back on my career and where it has

A calendar showing Feb 17 as Random Act of Kindness Day as part of the Paying It Forward movement
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Ideas Have The Power To Change The World – For Good and For Bad

Ideas have power. They can change the world. They can open new windows of opportunity and inspire us to do things that we never thought possible. Ideas transform our perception of what is possible and inspire us to push on when we feel like giving up. Success can be just around the corner with one [

Ideas are powerful. They can change the world, they can open new windows of opportunity and inspire us to do things that we n
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What Is Hot and Not For Innovations at CES 2018

Each year for the last decade or so, we put together a list of what will be the hot innovations for the coming year. This year, I’ve included what I think will be the innovations that will be over-hyped in 2018. so – here is my view of what will hot and not for innovations […]

Innovations at CES